Markets

Why it matters

No revenue, no FID. Revenue certainty is the first requirement for clean industry projects to be bankable and reach Final Investment Decision (FID). Projects depend on the reliability of credible revenues, often in the form of long-term offtake agreements, to secure financing and reach this critical investment milestone. That same certainty decides whether developers can raise development capital that comes even earlier. While voluntary commitments have demonstrated how such offtakes can be structured, market creation policies – such as carbon pricing, mandates, and obligatory standards – are now essential to scale predictable, investable demand and turn one off deals into exponential growth.

Where are we now?

Progress is diverging sharply across sectors. In aviation, demand-certainty mechanisms are working: the EU’s ReFuelEU Aviation mandate has helped cumulative financed sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production capacity climb roughly 2.5 times since 2023. Materials tell a different story – current carbon pricing alone hasn’t been enough to unlock investment in steel, cement and concrete at scale, and while interest in complementary tools like Green Public Procurement is growing, implementation still lags. Shipping and chemicals lag further still: market-creating measures in shipping remain stalled at the IMO, fertilisers have almost no dedicated policy vehicle, and methanol’s momentum in China has yet to become a global signal. The result is an uneven landscape of opportunity – but aviation shows what’s possible once a sector commits to demand scale-up, and closing that gap, sector by sector, is what this Summit is for.